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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:36 am 
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At this point, you hav a 50/50 shot of having the right door, I would think, and changing your selection would be a matter of personal preference. Odss are neither for nor against you.


Only when random




You have picked a door...

Monty will NOT open the door the prize is behind...

Monty chose NOT to open YOUR door or the other door....


Odd's are you picked the correct door.  By over 50% (unless he randomly opens doors)

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:33 am 
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What is the only natural wonder that can be seen from space?



Ollie,  Unless you meant something like Dolly Partons chest, which I'm not so sure isn't manmade,  can you please phrase these correctly ?

I know the Great Wall of China can be seen from space, but unless you actually meant "7 manmade wonders of the ancient word",  I doubt angel falls, niagra falls, grand canyon, Mt Everest or a volcano, can be seen from space

ADDED IN:

Holy xit...

This Steve Irwin thing, I got the answer,  Is the great barrier reef one of the natural wonders of the world ?  That is over 1000 miles long and WOULD be seen from space !

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:39 am 
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Ollie,


This is strange,  if it weren't for Steve Irwins death, I'd never have gotten this, a reef that long WOULD be veiwable from space under proper atmospheric conditions.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:47 am 
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My apologies to Karyoker,  here I was getting mif'd that he phrased his question wrong throwing us off, and all along he was correct, and I made a nasty assumption because I'm going thru a byotchy period now.. and didn't know the correct answer prior to just now hearing about Steve IRwin killed off the GB reef

THe Great Barrier reef (where Steve Irwin was killed) is a natural wonder and CAN be seen from space,  the manmade wonder is the Great Wall however

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:00 pm 
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Steven Kaplan @ Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:47 am wrote:
My apologies to Karyoker,  here I was getting mif'd that he phrased his question wrong throwing us off, and all along he was correct, and I made a nasty assumption because I'm going thru a byotchy period now..



slips kappy some evening primrose oil

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:36 pm 
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slips kappy some evening primrose oil



That's not like that Traditional Medicinals "Smooth Move tea" I hope.  Senna, and cascara segrada,  rubarb isn't my idea of a "Night on the Town"... In fact wouldn't even be seated at the computer long... OK,  Time for me to go to sleep...I'm going thru the change, getting hot flases, I even feel my bone density softening as we speak.  and I'm moody.......


Good night all....

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:56 pm 
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I havnt been monitoring this thread since I posted I probably phrased that questuion wrong indeed...Witch was right It is the great wall...

rules are u cant google but here are the 8wonders
 maybe the adjective was a ff.... LOL

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:17 pm 
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karyoker @ Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:56 pm wrote:
I havnt been monitoring this thread since I posted I probably phrased that questuion wrong indeed...Witch was right It is the great wall...

rules are u cant google but here are the 8wonders
 maybe the adjective was a ff.... LOL



OMG da witch is RIGHT!!! woooooooooohooooooooooooooo pinch me someone

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:23 am 
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The Great Wall the only man-made object that can be seen from space?  Baloney.  Ever asked, say, an astronaut?

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a2_092.html

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:29 am 
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Re: Monty Hall

You guys are actually grasping the subtleties of the question better than most, and you're on the right track.

Here's a further assumption that must be made in order to analyze the problem correctly: Assume that Monty has played this game many times, and every time the contestant guesses a door, Monty *always* opens one of the other ones, whether the contestant guessed correctly or not.

Kappy noticed this angle right away.  I suspect he's played Three-Card Monte (not Monty) before.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:51 am 
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Tom Eaton @ Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:23 am wrote:
The Great Wall the only man-made object that can be seen from space?  Baloney.  Ever asked, say, an astronaut?

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a2_092.html


ok I read it, and came to the conclusion that its keith in drag

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:38 pm 
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The Great Wall the only man-made object that can be seen from space?  Baloney.



I thought I stated "ancient manmade 7 wonders visible to the naked eye from space"


Never heard of 3 card Monte.  Can't stand cards,  don't play.

OK, to bed....
                           later

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:59 am 
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Three-card Monte is that thing where the con man shows the sucker three cards, tells him to pick a certain card, and then shuffles them around each other to see if the sucker can follow his card.  The reason I said it's similar to the Monty Hall problem is because sometimes the con man makes the game more difficult by giving the sucker a chance to switch his pick before he reveals them.  That's why it's important for purposes of the problem to understand that Monty *always* reveals one of the other two doors, not just sometimes.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:36 pm 
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This thread seems to be dying for lack of interest, so for the sake of completeness here's the answer to Monty Hall:

Yes, it is to the advantage of the contestant to switch.

Most people (including me when I first tried to figure it out) say that it makes no difference because there are two doors left, which are equally likely to contain the prize.

The reason this is wrong is because Monty opening one of the doors doesn't tell you anything because he always opens a door and it will never contain the prize since he knows where the prize is and will avoid it.

The most helpful way to think about the problem, for me anyway, was to imagine that Monty instead asked the contestant if he wanted to stay with his original door, or wanted to instead choose *both* other doors.  Looked at this way, it becomes apparent that switching will give you 2/3 chance of being right while staying with the original will only give you a 1/3 chance.  The problem as originally stated is exactly the same.

If that still doesn't seem right, imagine a situation where there a thousand doors instead of three.   You pick door #1.  Monty, *who knows where the prize is, remember,* then systematically eliminates every other door except door #347.  Which door do you think most likely contains the prize, #1 or #347?  Right.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:14 am 
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so for the sake of completeness here's the answer to Monty Hall:



No,  That IS NOT complete Tom.  Baye's theorem DOES NOT apply when there's a large psychological component influencing shift.  Monty Hall is the master of his own show.  Fact  is Marilyn Vos Savante WAS NOT correct.  Read monty Hall's own interpretation of this puzzle..  I will still maintain odd's are that you stick with your door and DO NOT switch.  Given the following scenario you have NO evidence chances are 1/3 vs 2/3.   You are believing a mathematical theorem called Baye's theorem which DOES NOT take into consideration Monty raising the ante bribing a person also offering cash.  As I initially stated, this is NOT just probability, there's a huge psychological factor here too.  In your response (Which was Marilyn Vos Savante's erroneous dispute) psychology goes out the window.  You've forgotten something quite important, NOT ONLY did Monty Hall just turn over one door showing a goat, but he also offered contestants money, and raised the sum trying to influence their decision.  He applied pressure.. You are eliminating Monty Hall's being the master of his show and using psychological elements of bribery. THIS is how this differ's from the three prisoner's paradox, and the gamblers paradox.  There is NO evidence given the actual setting of Monty Hall's psychologically attempting to pilot outcome that switching assures 2/3's probability of a correct door. In doing-so,  you assume that Monty know's the outcome, but you quickly also forget that his goal is to direct a person using psychology throughout. The Bayesian approach to this doesn't work given the psychological component

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:29 am 
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For the sake of completeness, this is how Monty Hall explained "The problem with this Problem".. It starts assuming psychology used, and quickly forgets this is ALL about psychology AND some probability..


Quote:
The Problem With the Problem
Mr. Hall continued: "Now do you see what happened there? The higher the cash sum I offered you, the more you thought the car was behind Door 2. I wanted to con you into switching there, because I knew the car was behind 1. That's the kind of thing I can do when I'm in control of the game. You may think you have probability going for you when you follow the answer in her column, but there's the pyschological factor to consider."

He proceeded to prove his case by winning the next eight rounds. Whenever the contestant began with the wrong door, Mr. Hall promptly opened it and awarded the goat; whenever the contestant started out with the right door, Mr. Hall allowed him to switch doors and get another goat. The only way to win a car would have been to disregard Ms. vos Savant's advice and stick with the original door.

Was Mr. Hall cheating? Not according to the rules of the show, because he did have the option of not offering the switch, and he usually did not offer it.

And although Mr. Hall might have been violating the spirit of Ms. vos Savant's problem, he was not violating its letter. Dr. Diaconis and Mr. Gardner both noticed the same loophole when they compared Ms. vos Savant's wording of the problem with the versions they had analyzed in their articles.

"The problem is not well-formed," Mr. Gardner said, "unless it makes clear that the host must always open an empty door and offer the switch. Otherwise, if the host is malevolent, he may open another door only when it's to his advantage to let the player switch, and the probability of being right by switching could be as low as zero." Mr. Gardner said the ambiguity could be eliminated if the host promised ahead of time to open another door and then offer a switch.

Ms. vos Savant acknowledged that the ambiguity did exist in her original statement. She said it was a minor assumption that should have been made obvious by her subsequent analyses, and that did not excuse her professorial critics. "I wouldn't have minded if they had raised that objection," she said Friday, "because it would mean they really understood the problem. But they never got beyond their first mistaken impression. That's what dismayed me."

Still, because of the ambiguity in the wording, it is impossible to solve the problem as stated through mathematical reasoning. "The strict argument," Dr. Diaconis said, "would be that the question cannot be answered without knowing the motivation of the host."

Which means, of course, that the only person who can answer this version of the Monty Hall Problem is Monty Hall himself. Here is what should be the last word on the subject:

"If the host is required to open a door all the time and offer you a switch, then you should take the switch," he said. "But if he has the choice whether to allow a switch or not, beware. Caveat emptor. It all depends on his mood.

"My only advice is, if you can get me to offer you $5,000 not to open the door, take the money and go home."


This is why I gave MY initial response to this "But psychology of Monty Knowing the answer supercedes the mathematical probability",  If he tries to pressure you to switch, chances are you should NOT.

I still maintain *I* solved this problem.   LMAO


(All research I did on this, I did this morning.  When I initially answered this, I had no clue of any of this info regarding Savante, and Monty Hall, and the mathematicians dispute, HOWEVER I am familiar with Bayesian theory in Epistemology.  I am familiar with this type logic as well, and comparable riddles,  I've had to take extremely competitive tests)

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:19 am 
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The quotes you included say that the problem as initially stated by Marilyn Vos Savant was incomplete because it did not include the necessary assumption that Monty will *always* open a door.  I specifically stated in this thread that you must make that assumption in order to work the problem correctly.  I gave you credit for noting that complicating factor.

Given that assumption, however, psychology has nothing to do with it.  The problem as stated in this thread has no complications involving Monty offering the contestant varying amounts of money to switch his pick, or the complications you're talking about here, where you can wonder, "well, what if Monty only gives the contestant the chance to switch if he guessed right in the first place?"  The rules of the problem are that Monty will always offer the contestant a chance to switch.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:31 pm 
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and I still had it backwards.  I assumed the odds were always in favor of NOT switching doors knowing VERY WELL Monty always knows.  I need to read up on this,  this is so dang abstract it's going to bug me for awhile  LOL.   I just don't understand how the element of psychology can be removed from this paradox.

Anyway,  this was an excellent puzzle Tom.... Thanks... (I think)  LMAO

I guess this is why I'm reading the answer is counter-intuitive..  It's hard as all H3ll

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:39 pm 
Myself, I would have opted for the box that Jay Stewart was holding (and probably containing a bottle of Turtlewax)....


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:39 pm 
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I'd have taken the goat.... tough times lately !!

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